Week in Review: Fed Rate Hike Pause on the Cards

This week marked the end of May, with the S&P 500 reaching its highest level since mid-August 2022 and the Nasdaq Composite hitting its best level since mid-April 2022. The agreement reached between the White House and Republican congressional leaders to raise the federal debt limit and avoid a default did not significantly impact investor sentiment, as indications of a deal had already emerged. Economic data took centre stage, with U.S. employment data in the spotlight.

The Senate passed legislation to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling and impose restraints on government spending through the 2024 election. President Joe Biden is set to formally end the month-long debt-limit crisis this weekend.

Employment data released during the week was mixed. A report on Wednesday showed that job openings rebounded much more than expected in April and hit their highest level (10.1 million) since January. However, Friday’s release showed that U.S. unemployment unexpectedly rose from 3.4% to 3.7%. The Labor Department also highlighted an increase in the number of people losing jobs or completing temporary positions, reaching the highest level since February 2022. Overall, these findings suggest a more challenging job market for workers. The Federal Reserve is signalling that they plan to keep interest rates steady in June while retaining the option to hike further in coming months. Friday’s unemployment data reinforces this possibility.

Another encouraging sign regarding interest rates was the release of U.S. manufacturing data for May. Data showed a seventh straight monthly contraction in factory activity, as expected. Encouragingly, prices paid for supplies and other inputs by manufacturers contracted at the fastest pace since December, defying expectations for a modest increase.

Eurozone inflation decreased more than expected in May, increasing by 6.1%, also down from a 7.0% increase in the previous month. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.5% in April, in line with market expectations, following a revised rate of 6.6% in March. Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone declined to 44.80 in May, down from 45.80 in the previous month.

UK house prices experienced a marginal decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis in May, following a revised increase of 0.4% in the previous month. Market expectations had anticipated a 0.5% decline. This decline in house prices reflects wider concerns in the UK property market. Moody’s recently downgraded the debt of Canary Wharf, a prominent symbol of the global real estate downturn. The east London financial district, saw its debt rating lowered from Ba1 to Ba3.

In China, the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped unexpectedly to 48.80 in May, indicating a contraction for the second consecutive month. This suggests that the post-Covid recovery in China’s economy is facing challenges. However, the services PMI rose to 54.5, albeit below expectations, but still indicating expansion.

On the other hand, the private Caixin manufacturing PMI index surprisingly increased to 50.90 in May, contradicting the official data and showing a slight expansion in manufacturing activity. The Caixin index mainly covers smaller and export-oriented businesses.

U.S. and Asian markets were stronger this week, whilst European markets ended in negative territory. In the U.S., the Dow Jones (+2.02%), S&P 500 (+1.83%) and Nasdaq (+2.04%) all ended the week higher. Similarly, the Nikkei 225 (+1.97%), Hang Seng (+1.05%) and Shanghai Composite Index (+0.55%) also ended the week higher, whilst the Euro Stoxx 50 (-0.32%) and FTSE 100 (-1.80%) were negative.

Market Moves of the Week:

Earlier this week, the foreign ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa met in Cape Town. The BRICS nations have requested guidance from their dedicated bank regarding the potential implementation of a shared currency, aiming to shield member countries from the impact of sanctions like those imposed on Russia.

Despite a 9.61% tariff increase and a bailout of R21.9 billion from the Treasury, Eskom reported a loss before tax of R21.2 billion for the 2024 financial year, surpassing the projected loss of R13.6 billion. The company’s revenue fell short of expectations, while its expenses, particularly on diesel, amounted to R21.36 billion, more than double the previous year. Additionally, the Treasury informed legislators that the total invoiced municipal arrear debt rose to R58.5 billion.

South Africa’s trade surplus contracted to R3.54bn, lower than expectations, while the Absa Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output for the second quarter following a modest rebound in the first quarter.

The JSE All-Share Index (+0.70%) ended the week in positive territory, driven higher by the resource (+4.24%) and financial (+1.01%) sectors, whilst industrial shares (-1.24%) were negative. By Friday close, the rand was trading at R19.50 to the U.S. Dollar, appreciating by +0.75% for the week.

Chart of the Week:

The U.S. unemployment rate rose in May to 3.7% from 3.4%, one of the fastest increases since early in the pandemic, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. About 440,000 more workers reported that they are unemployed; and most of those were from temporary jobs ending or layoffs, according to the data.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, Washington Post.

Week in Review: China’s Post-Covid Recovery Shows Strong Progress

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in February from 50.1 in January, above the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in domestic activity. Furthermore, the NBS emphasized that the non-manufacturing sector’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reached 56.3 in February, up from 54.4 in January. After lifting Covid restrictions, China’s economy is showing signs of a more robust recovery, with manufacturing seeing its most substantial progress in over ten years, services activity rising and the housing market stabilizing.

In the U.S. market sentiment received a boost this week after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic published his written essay on Wednesday, commenting that he believes the Federal Reserve (Fed)should increase its policy rate by 50 basis points, to a range of 5%-5.25%, and maintain it at that level until well into 2024. As of now, rates are within a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Chris Waller expressed doubt about whether the Fed is making the necessary headway to curb economic growth and decrease inflation. Citing robust inflation rates, as well as strong retail sales and the January jobs report, Waller indicated that if this trend persists, the Federal Reserve may have to increase rates beyond initial expectations. Officials next meet March 21-22, and by then they will have seen fresh reports on employment and inflation.

In Europe, official data indicated that the annual rate of inflation decreased slightly from 8.6% in January to 8.5% in February, and this was primarily driven by declining energy costs. On the other hand, core inflation, which provides a more accurate representation of underlying pricing pressures by excluding volatile food and energy expenses, increased from 5.3% to 5.6%. All combined, these factors contribute to the view that the European Central Bank (ECB) may maintain its hawkish stance for an extended period. It was suggested by the ECB President Christine Lagarde that a probable half-point increase in interest rates would occur during the March 16 meeting. European government bond yields increased over the week due to concerns about the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the ECB as a result of persistent inflation data.

Following their sharpest weekly decline in two months, U.S. stocks rose Friday ending the week strongly, regaining some of their recent losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained +2.58% for the week, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones were also both strongly up on the week, with gains of 1.90% and 1.75%, respectively. PMI’s in both Europe and the UK picked up in February with the Eurozone PMI rising to 52 from 50.2 in January and the UK composite rising to 53.1 versus 48.5 in January. Both the Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE 100 ended the week positively, gaining 2.78% and 0.87% respectively.

For the second consecutive week, Chinese equities rose in anticipation of the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting, as promising economic data raised expectations for a recovery that could surpass previous projections. The Shanghai Composite climbed by 1.87%. After four consecutive weeks of losses, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rebounded, increasing by 2.79%. The Nikkei 225 also secured positive gains of 1.73% this week.

Market Moves of the Week:

In local news, the Absa Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) indicated that factory activity in South Africa (SA) experienced a significant contraction in February. The seasonally-adjusted PMI dropped to 48.8 in February, down from 53 points in January, falling below the threshold of 50 points that distinguish between expansion and contraction. This is the first time it has fallen below this level since September 2022. This decline was likely due to the unprecedented seven days of Stage 6 loadshedding that occurred during the survey period. According to Absa, the business activity, new sales orders, employment, and inventories, sub-indices were all in contractionary terrain. Export sales, however, rose to the best level in a year, suggesting that manufacturers who solely supply the domestic market may have faced a challenging month.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released their quarterly labour force survey during the week, and it highlighted that the official unemployment rate recorded a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points, reaching 32.7% in the final quarter of 2022 — marking its fourth consecutive decrease. During the quarter, the financial services sector was responsible for the largest share of job creation, hiring an additional 103,000 workers. The other sectors that contributed to the quarter’s job gains were private households, trade, and transport. The community and social services industry, however, saw a significant reduction in employment, shedding 122,000 jobs. Agriculture and construction were also among the sectors that made a negative contribution to the employment figures for the quarter. Although the unemployment rate has decreased in recent times, it remains higher than its pre-pandemic level of 30.1%.

This week, the JSE all-share index recorded a gain of +1.76%, fueled by gains in the resource sector (+3.73%), followed by industrials (+1.36%), and the financial sector (+1.18%). However, the gains were offset by a slight decrease in the property sector (-0.04%). The rand appreciated marginally to end the week at R18.15 to the dollar.

Chart of the Week:

The manufacturing sector in China saw significant growth in February 2023, expanding at its fastest pace in over a decade. This unexpected surge in production was attributed to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions towards the end of last year.