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Monthly Update

December 2024

Despite an impressive year for risk assets, global markets ended 2024 with mixed performances. Developed Markets (MSCI World Index) delivered strong returns of 19.2% y/y, though December saw some declines as profit-taking emerged and the anticipated “Santa Claus rally” failed to materialise. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates at its final meeting of the year in December but was cautious in signalling only two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, contributing to a muted equity performance for the month. A late surge in Chinese equities, along with solid performances from India and Taiwan, contributed to emerging market equities (MSCI EM) achieving a return of 8.1% y/y.

Fixed income markets saw a contrast in performance. High yield bonds continued to outperform, posting returns of over 8%, while global government bonds faced challenges from rising yields and sticky inflation. Developed market central banks, particularly in the U.S., slowed down the pace of anticipated rate cuts, which contributed to a negative return of -1.7% for global investment-grade bonds in 2024 (Bloomberg Global Aggregate).

Despite an impressive year for risk assets, global markets ended 2024 with mixed performances. Developed Markets (MSCI World Index) delivered strong returns of 19.2% y/y, though December saw some declines as profit-taking emerged and the anticipated “Santa Claus rally” failed to materialise. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates at its final meeting of the year in December but was cautious in signalling only two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, contributing to a muted equity performance for the month. A late surge in Chinese equities, along with solid performances from India and Taiwan, contributed to emerging market equities (MSCI EM) achieving a return of 8.1% y/y.

Fixed income markets saw a contrast in performance. High yield bonds continued to outperform, posting returns of over 8%, while global government bonds faced challenges from rising yields and sticky inflation. Developed market central banks, particularly in the U.S., slowed down the pace of anticipated rate cuts, which contributed to a negative return of -1.7% for global investment-grade bonds in 2024 (Bloomberg Global Aggregate).

U.S. equities, driven by strong consumer spending and job growth, posted robust returns for 2024. The S&P 500 gained 23.3% over the year, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq surging 28.6%. However, the Dow Jones ended the year up only 12.9%, weighed down by a 5.3% decline in December. Despite these December setbacks, U.S. markets remained the standout globally, with economic growth averaging 2.6% q/q in the first three quarters of 2024. The solid growth contributed to continued investor confidence, especially in mega-cap tech stocks, which secured global growth stocks’ dominance relative to value for a second straight year.

In contrast, Europe struggled to match U.S. performance, hindered by high energy costs, regulatory challenges and weak manufacturing demand. Economic momentum in the eurozone weakened significantly, with European equities (Euro Stoxx 50) posting a modest 8.3% return for 2024. The DAX in Germany rose by 18.8% for the year, but December’s sell-off and political instability in France and Germany weighed on sentiment. The UK fared worse, with the FTSE 100 rising by only 5.7% for the year, while a challenging autumn budget further undermined optimism for a recovery.

In Asia, China’s economic performance was underwhelming through much of the year, driven by weak property markets and subdued consumer confidence. However, following a more coordinated policy response in September, Chinese equities rallied in the second half, ending the year up 12.7% (Shanghai Composite). This late-year recovery was spurred by stimulus measures that raised hopes for a stronger 2025. Japan also delivered impressive returns, with the Nikkei gaining 19.2% over 2024, driven by factors such as share buybacks, corporate governance reforms, and a weaker yen, which benefited exporters.

Commodities were more mixed. Brent crude oil rose 2.3% in December but ended the year 3.1% lower, at 74.78 $/bbl. Gold delivered a strong performance, with a 27.1% increase over the year, driven by safe-haven demand amid US fiscal concerns and geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the broader commodity index (Bloomberg Commodity Index) posted only a 5.4% increase, held back by weak demand in China.

South African equities faced headwinds in December, with the JSE declining for a third consecutive month. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index fell 0.49% m/m, but still showed a 9.4% gain for 2024. Resources (Resource 10 Index: -9.8% y/y) struggled throughout the year, as oil, PGMs, and coal prices lagged. In contrast, industrials, as measured by the Industrial 25 Index, outperformed with a 14.4% y/y gain. Financials also saw strong performance, gaining 15.3% for the year. However, the SA Listed Property TR Index led the way in 2024, delivering an impressive 29.0% annual gain.

The South African rand emerged as one of the top five performing emerging market currencies in 2024, for the first time since 2016, according to analysts at Crédit Agricole and Ashmore Group. Despite a sharp drop in December that pushed its 2024 performance to a 2.6% y/y decline against the U.S. dollar, it still ranks fifth among 24 major developing-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

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